American Association of Family and Consumer Sciences (AAFCS) Practice Test

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Scenario analysis primarily uses what to help predict outcomes?

Historical data only
Intuition and experience
Public opinion surveys
Mathematical formulas

The correct answer is: Intuition and experience

Scenario analysis primarily relies on intuition and experience, as it involves assessing various potential outcomes based on different assumptions and variables. This method requires understanding the context and implications of changes in certain factors, helping professionals visualize possible futures and the consequences of different decisions. While historical data, public opinion surveys, and mathematical formulas can support scenario analysis by providing background information or statistical backing, they do not capture the nuanced decision-making process inherent in this analytical approach. Intuition and experience play a crucial role in evaluating scenarios because they inform how one interprets the data or other inputs, allowing for a more holistic understanding of potential outcomes and their significance. Overall, effective scenario analysis involves a blend of data interpretation and the subjective insights gained from lived experiences and professional judgment.